Prospects on the Rise in 2024

1) Samuel Basallo (19yo, C/1B, BAL) (#46 on MLB Top 100): Basallo is a rather slim 6’3” for the time being. He has plenty of room to add more weight and muscle as he matures. Basallo was one of the most impressive hitters I watched last year. He has very advanced bat-to-ball skills and is very disciplined for his age. Despite having the frame to add more strength to go along with his plus hit tool, Basallo already shows great EVs and bat speed. He jumped three levels in 2023 and hit 20 HRs, seven triples, and 26 doubles. Basallo also maintained a sub-20% K-rate, 24% line-drive rate, 14% SwStr%, and a 78.6% contact rate. Basallo in an average runner, but I don’t expect much in the SB department as he fills out and moves up levels. He has a plus-plus arm, great accuracy on throws, and moves well for a guy his size. Having said that, I do not expect him to stick at catcher. With the presence of Adley on the big-league roster, Basallo seems to be shifting to first base for the long term (28 games at 1B, 67 games at C, and 14 games at DH in 2023). I am trying to temper expectations with Basallo, but I could eventually see him as a top 10 prospect who is pushing for a spot on the major league roster by 2025. He appears to be on track for a full season at AA Bowie as a 19-year-old in 2024.

2) Jett Williams (20yo; SS; NYM) (#78 on MLB Top 100): Williams is the oldest player on this list having just turned 20 years old on 11-3-2003. He stands at 5’6” tall but is a solid 175 pounds. Williams is a great athlete with more impact than his frame would suggest. He has a great approach and is very advanced at recognizing spin. Williams has a very powerful lower half and generates a lot of power from the ground up. Williams is one of the most patient hitters in the minors with a chase rate of just 15.6%, a SwStr% of only 7%, and a contact rate of 80.5%. He consistently drives the ball in the air with good carry, giving him a chance to hit for average game power (no HRs over 397 feet in 2023). Williams is a plus runner, with good reads and instincts in the field. The Mets have already played him at shortstop, second base, and center field. Williams’ most likely defensive home is second base, where he would project as an above average defender. He also looked good in CF, so that is a possibility as well (especially now with baby Acuna in the system). Williams used his plus speed and some aggressiveness on the bases to steal 45 bases on 52 tries in the 2023 season. He is sure to be a consistent on-base threat as he and Termarr Johnson became the first teenagers since 2005 to walk 100 times in a Minor League season. I am excited about Williams’ plus hit tool, patient approach, good speed on the bases, and versatility in the field.

3) Samuel Zavala (19yo; OF; SDP) (#93 on the MLB Top 100): Zavala has a wirey 6’1” frame with room to add some strength. He has been very young for the level at every stop, but he has held his own. Zavala battled injuries early in his career but logged 115 games last year. A full season on the field resulted in Zavala being named as a Low-A California League All-Star. Zavala finished the 2023 season one HR shy of an exclusive list of teenagers with 20 doubles, 15 HRs, and 20 SBs. He has a smooth LH swing, does not chase much (10% SwStr%), and hits to all fields. Zavala does have a propensity to swing and miss in the zone a little too much (30%), but this should improve once he adds some strength and can catch up to fast balls up in the zone with regularity (13% SwStr% against fastballs). He hit only .225 against off-speed pitches in 2023, but Zavala mitigates these issues with an extremely patient approach (14% chase-rate and 18% BB-rate). Zavala is currently an average runner, but he may lose a step as he fills out. He possesses an above average arm which would play well in either corner OF spot. I expect Zavala to be an above-average defender in a corner OF spot, and he remains the best OF prospect in the Padres’ farm system. He swiped 20 of 26 bases in Low-A but would likely be just an opportunistic base stealer at the upper levels. Zavala is a riskier investment given his whiff issues, current average hit tool, and uncertainty of a power projection. However, I am banking on him adding muscle/bat speed instead of trying to remain a CFer. If he does that, his power profile will increase his card values and his prospect ranking. Zavala still has plenty of time to change the profile a bit, he does not currently have much competition ahead of him in the system, and he is bilingual. I also like that an oblique injury late in the year really caused him to struggle following his promotion to High-A, which in turned caused his card prices to drop some. High risk/high reward prospect here.

4) Colt Emerson (18yo; SS; SEA) (NR): Having just turned 18 years old in July of last year, Emerson was one of the younger prep bats in the 2023 class. If you read my write up for 2023 Bowman Draft, you know I am really high on Emerson. He had a strong summer circuit, a great performance for Team USA, killed it in eight rookie-ball games, continued to rake in 16 games at Low-A, and was on fire during the California League playoffs (leading Modesto to the title). Emerson has a smooth left-handed swing, and his feel for the barrel is advanced. Emerson has already displayed above average power with room for more in his 6’1”frame. Most believe Emerson has the potential to produce at least average game power as he matures; however, I think there is more in the tank. He is a patient hitter, with a contact rate north of 80%, a chase rate of 15%, and a zone-contact rate of 86%. He ran a chase rate just under 20% in his 28 pro games and had a SwStk% of just 9%! He also nearly walked as much as he struck out (18% to 15%). At a very young 18 years old, Emerson was displaying an average exit velocity of 89 MPH, with a 90th percentile EV of 105mph (already north of the MLB average; at 18 years old!). Box score watchers will point to Emerson only having two HRs in 28 games last year; however, he had a 2.0 GB/FB ratio and a 28% line-drive percentage. Emerson also hit to the opposite field over 40% of the time (both his HRs were the other way). With his EVs and feel for the barrel, I expect his power numbers to really increase once he starts creating lift to the pull side. There’s potential for a plus-plus hit tool and plus power. Emerson is an above average runner, clocked at 6.7 seconds in the 60-yard dash. He was eight for eight on SBs, proving to be an opportunistic runner. Emerson has an above average arm and soft hands. He has smooth actions at SS and is comfortable making throws from different angles. Emerson really impressed me going to his right and has the requisite arm strength to make all the throws. I can see him sticking at SS or moving to 3B or 2B (where he has experience with Team USA). I am trying to temper expectations, but I see Emerson as a better version of fellow Mariners’ SS prospect, Cole Young. I currently have Emerson ranked as the top prospect in the Mariners’ farm system. In the hobby market, Emerson is my 2024 version of Roman Anthony in 2023.

5) Lazaro Montes (19yo; OF/DH; SEA) (NR): Montes is a gargantuan teenager who stands at 6-foot-4, 210+ pounds. Strikeouts were my main concern with Montes as he posted a 33% K-rate in the DSL in 2022; however, he cut that number at each stop in 2023 (25.3% at the complex and 25.0% in Low-A). Even more, he dropped his SwStr% from 38.5% to 23.8% to 13.1% at each level. Despite a GB/FB ratio of 1.43, Montes had 34 extra base hits in just 70 games. Because of his long levers, natural loft, and effortless power, Montes does not have to sell out for power. He posted a 118.4 mph exit velo at the complex in 2023. To put it into perspective, 118.4 mph EV would have ranked 6 th in the MLB in 2023…. ironically just ahead of Yordan Alvarez, who is Montes’ best comp. Shohei Ohtani and Matt Olsen topped out at 118.6 mph, and Ronald Acuna had the highest at 121.2 mph. Once again, Montes just turned 19 years old in October. I cannot wait to see him hit in High-A Everette! Now, it is not all sugar plums and roses with Montes. He does not move very well and is a candidate to be stashed in a RF/1B/DH role. His contact rate was only 69.5%, so he is going to need to continue working on cutting his whiff rate. Towards the end of the season, Montes started seeing more breaking pitches. He struggled to pick up spin, which results in a lot of swing-and-miss. He is still very young and has a lot of time to continue to develop. He has no speed or defensive upside to speak of, but his power will definitely play at 1B or DH. Also, his 18% BB-rate and high OBP numbers will help carry below average contact rates. For the hobby, I see big power spikes, especially in the lower levels, which will drive prices up for stints. I have no problem buying in the slumps and selling in the spikes on Montes.

6) Josue De Paula (18yo; OF; LAD) (NR): De Paula was one of the most polished hitters at the rookie level in 2022, and only improved his hitting ability in 2023. He posted an 80% contact rate in 2023, while cutting his SwStr% from 17.7 in 2022 to just 8.8% in 2023. De Paula hits the ball hard to all fields with plenty of room to add muscle to his 6’3” frame. Watching him play, it is hard to believe De Paula is just 18 years old. De Paula is an average runner, who projects to slow even more once he fills out his frame. I don’t see him adding much value on the bases, but he also should not be a liability. De Paula projects as a corner OFer and already spent 65 or 71 games in Low-A in RF. Once De Paula fills out and generates a bit more loft in his swing (1.44 GB/FB ratio), he should develop some really good pop. This combined with his excellent hit tool give De Paula some massive offensive upside. That is the kind of profile we love to see in the hobby, the Dodgers bump is an added bonus.

7) Rayner Arias (17yo; OF; SFG) (NR): I really hesitated to include a player on this list with no at bats above the rookie ball, but I made an exception for Arias. He tore up the DSL in 2023. Arias’ swing is smooth, controlled, and repeatable. I can’t remember ever seeing his timing off when I watched him swing. Arias has a very advanced approach and rarely chases outside the zone. His bat path maximizes his time in the zone, which allows him to maximize plate coverage. Arias will still be 17 years old at the beginning of the 2024 season, but he is already well beyond his years as a hitter. It’s no surprise that Arias is more advanced than his peers considering his father, Pablo, played professionally in the Tigers system and now works as a scout. At 6’2”, he has plenty of room to add muscle, but he already flashes above average pop thanks to his bat speed and effective lower half. He did have some swing-and-miss issues posting a 33.8% whiff rate and a 19.6% SwStr%. However, Arias is still very young and is playing against much older competition. He will also benefit from great coaching. On a positive note, he only had a 14.5% K-rate and a 19.7% BB-rate in his limited time in rookie ball. Arias is an average runner who will likely end up in a corner OF spot. His instincts and baseball IQ allow his average speed to play up on the bases as well as in the field. He may not stick in center, but there’s potential for big power combined with the approach and bat-to-ball skills to get into it consistently.

8) Ricardo Cabrera (19yo; SS/3B; CIN) (NR): Cabrera stands at 5’11” tall. He ripped through the complex league in 2023 before earning a late promotion to Low-A. Cabrera only had a five-game sample in Low-A, but he held his own as an 18-year-old playing against much older competition. Cabrera absolutely demolishes fastballs, specifically four-seamers. He batted over .430 and had an in-zone contact rate over 91% versus heaters. Cabrera has not become adept at picking up spin early enough, and often found himself striding his weight forward not allowing breaking pitches to travel deep enough. This resulted in Cabrera hitting .150 against off-speed pitches with a SwStr% of 24% and an O-swing% of 31.1%. With a contact rate of just 67.4%, Cabrera may have just been guessing fastball a lot of the time with no feel for adjusting once the ball left the pitcher’s hand. With better coaching, Cabrera should improve on picking up spin and making adjustments. He had slightly above average EVs for an 18-year-old at 87.9 mph and boasted a max EV of 101.5 mph. With the proper fixes, Cabrera should improve on his overall contact rate allowing him to barrel up breaking pitches while still turning on fastballs. Cabrera spent time at SS and 3B at the complex level, but played four of his five games at SS in Low-A. With his average actions at SS, above average arm, and the plethora of middle infield prospects in the Cincinnati farm system, Cabrera projects as a future third baseman. Cabrera possesses above average speed and swiped 24 bases on 26 attempts. I am banking on Cabrera continuing to improve at the plate with better coaching, allowing him to develop an above average hit tool with some pop.

9) Jefferson Rojas (19yo; SS, CHC) (NR): Rojas was sent to Low-A Columbia just after his 18th birthday, and he held his own. I had the opportunity to watch him live several times, and he stood out despite playing older competition. The ball jumps off his bat (hit 107 mph EV last year), and I can see above average power on the horizon. Rojas’ bat path tends to get a little flat, potentially to sell out for contact. He had a contact rate of 77.5%, an 84% in-zone contact rate, a SwStr% of just 11%, and a K-rate of 20%; all good numbers for an 18-year-old making his debut in pro ball. Rojas did tend to get out of sync on occasion, but this should get cleaned up with some coaching. Rojas sprays the ball all over the field, and I can see an above average hit tool and power developing. Rojas has above average speed and was successful on 13 of 17 SBs in 2023. He has good instincts, range, and a more than capable arm to stick at SS. In my opinion, Rojas is currently the most natural SS in the Cubs system.

10) Gabriel Gonzalez (20yo; OF; SEA) (66 on MLB Top 100): Gonzalez is a thick, stocky right-hander. He is consistently on time and makes plenty of contact (77% contact rate, 85% in-zone contact rate). Gonzalez produced above average exit velocities, had a 21% line-drive percentage, hit to all fields, and had a K-rate around 17% across two levels in 2023. Low-A Modesto is one of the more hitter-friendly environments in the minors, but High-A Everette is like a high-school field. He ripped the cover off the ball after his promotions to High-A; however, he had Visa issues which kept him from traveling to Canada for a series. After the layoff, Gonzalez’s timing seemed to be a tick off. I also believe Gonzalez may have hit a wall playing 116 games, after only playing 67 and 54 games the previous two years. All these factors have caused his cards to dip a little. Gonzalez is a free-swinger and would benefit from cutting down his 56.7% outside-the-zone swing percentage. He struggled with the same issues following his promotion to Low-A in 2022, as he did after his promotion to High-A Everette in 2023. As is the case with many young international hitters, it’s hard to swing less frequently when you feel like you can hit everything. It is also hard to teach patience when a player has always hit well and was taught to swing more to get noticed by scouts. The chase-rate may become an issue as Gonzalez faces more advanced pitching capable of exposing the flaw. Gonzalez has average to below-average speed but stole 12 bags on 13 tries in his first 100 Low-A games. He has great bat-to-ball skills and projects as a corner outfield due to his plus-plus arm (12 OF assists in 88 games in 2023). I am looking for Gonzalez to exploit High-A pitching early this year in hitter-friendly Everette, and I will be unloading my cards of him prior to a promotion to AA Arkansas. This one comes with a bit of an asterisk as Gonzalez may not actually rise up prospect boards, but I foresee a rise in hobby-interest if he gets hot out of the gate.

***Honorable Mentions: Chase DeLauter, Hector Rodriguez, Anthony Gutierrez***