TOP 25 ROOKIES IN 2023 TOPPS UPDATE

2023 Topps Update is set to release on Wednesday, October 11th and it’s always been a fun and affordable rip.  The rookie checklist isn’t quite as strong as it has been in the past but there are a few names to look out for.  In this article I’m going to give you 15 position players and 10 pitchers that you will want to watch for when you are ripping this set next week. Now be sure to understand the Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna Jr stats have been used as a reference point only for these data sheets. Now I did rank these players based on my own personal preference but they are all capable of contributing to their respective teams in the future. The rookie checklist is pretty much a 50/50 split between pitchers and hitters, so let’s take a look at our Top 10 pitchers first.  

2023 TOPPS UPDATE BASEBALL CARDS ROOKIE CARDS BOWMAN BASEBALL PROSPECTS

10. MASON MILLER - 25 - RHP - ATHLETICS

Mason Miller kicks this thing off at #10. He only pitched 33.1 innings this season but held hitters to the lowest batting average on this list at only .200. While he managed to strike out 10+ batters per 9 innings, he also held the highest walk per 9 rate on this list at 4.32. Miller has a big FB and his velocity ranks in the 97th percentile among all MLB arms. His 4.77 xFIP was also the highest on the list but that could change drastically over the course of a larger sample size in 2024.

9. LOGAN ALLEN - 25 - LHP - GUARDIANS

Logan Allen doesn’t have what most would call “electric” stuff but he gets people out and that’s one of the most important facets of pitching. He posted solid numbers in 2023 finishing the regular season with a 1.7 WAR, and a 4.29 xFIP across 125.1 innings which is the 3rd most innings by any pitcher on this list.

8. BRANDON WILLIAMSON - 25 - LHP - REDS

Brandon Williamson is one of the tallest left handed pitchers in the MLB and throws a mid 90’s FB with excellent vertical plane. The Reds lefty finished the season with the lowest K/9 on this list but held a 4.29 xFIP across 25 starts finishing the season with 1.8 WAR.

7. COLE RAGANS - 25 - LHP - ROYALS

In the #7 spot we have Cole Ragans who put up the lowest 2023 xFIP on this list at 3.71, less than 1 point away from Spencer Strider. Ragans held the second highest BB/9 rate among pitchers on this list, but he also limited hitters to a .201 BA and struck out 10.59 hitters per nine which ranked 2nd and 3rd in those categories. He finished out the 2023 season with a 2.2 WAR earning him a bronze medal among pitchers on this checklist.

6. BRYCE MILLER - 25 - RHP - MARINERS

Bryce Miller holds the #6 spot among pitchers on this rookie checklist and finished the year with the lowest BB/9 rate in the group at 1.78. Miller throws a lot of strikes and has an incredible spin rate on his fastball creating a lot of late life on the pitch. It plays well up in the strike zone where a lot of high velocity arms are going these days. In 25 starts, Miller logged just over 131 innings in 2023 finishing the season with an 8-7 record and a 1.9 WAR.

5. TANNER BIBEE - 24 - RHP - GUARDIANS

The second Guardian on this list is Tanner Bibee coming in at the #5 position. Bibee was Mr. Reliable for the Guardians this season amassing 142 innings pitched across 25 starts and finished the 2023 season with a 10-4 record in his rookie season. While his K/9 and BB/9 numbers aren’t jaw dropping, his 2.98 ERA in 2023 came in lower than Braves’ ace Spencer Strider’s did in the regular season.

4. TAJ BRADLEY - 22 - RHP - RAYS

At #4 we have the second youngest arm on this Top 25 list, Taj Bradley. The young Rays righty had a solid rookie season limiting his xFIP to 3.83 and striking out a list leading 11.09 hitters per 9 (only 2 K’s per nine short of Strider). Bradley is a plus athlete that boasted incredible numbers in AA but hasn’t been as dominant in AAA and the MLB. He still has youth on his side at age 22 and could be a key component of the Rays rotation in 2024.

3. GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ - 23 - RHP - ORIOLES

Grayson Rodriguez was one of my favorite pitchers in the MiLB as a prospect. His plus change-up made hitters look foolish at the AA and AAA levels prior to his call-up and his slider is good enough to finish off hitters at the MLB level. His plus off-speed offerings really help increase the effectiveness of a mid to upper 90’s FB. G-Rod had the highest opponent batting average on this list at .257 but also finished the season with the 3rd lowest xFIP of 3.75.

2. BOBBY MILLER - 24 - RHP - DODGERS

Bobby Miller has an elite fastball which hits triple digits quite often in game. He can also utilize his slider as an out pitch that plays well off of his fastball. Miller has excellent stuff and managed to compile over 122 innings in 22 starts, finishing the 2023 regular season at 10-4. His performance was good enough to earn him the second highest WAR on this list at 2.8. You can catch Miller in the NLDS vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks which kicks off Saturday, October 7th.

1. EURY PEREZ - 20 - RHP - MARLINS

Eury Perez is #1 on my pitcher’s list for this release and probably ranks at # 2 behind Matt McLain on the entire rookie checklist. I watched a good amount of video of Perez in AA last year and his stuff is filthy. He’s also 6’8” and his downhill plane is second to none. At just 20 years old, he was able to finish the 2023 season with the second highest K/9 of 10.64 and for a lanky player with so many moving parts he held his BB/9 to just above 3. Perez will add even more beef to a stacked Marlins rotation with Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, and Braxton Garrett.

10. BRENTON DOYLE - 25 - CF - ROCKIES

Brenton Doyle hits leadoff on our Top 10. There are a few players on this list who have much higher upside on defense than offense and he is one of them. He’s got awful offensive #’s but, so far, his defensive upside has outweighed his offensive woes in Colorado.

9. JOEY WIEMER - 24 - CF - BREWERS

Wiemer was one of the Top defenders in the MLB while he was up but he, like many rookies, didn’t fare well against his first taste of MLB pitching. Wiemer has put up some really good offensive numbers across several MiLB seasons and hopefully he doesn’t turn into a AAAA All-Star.

8. MAIKEL GARCIA - 23 - 3B - ROYALS

Maikel Garcia has one of the best contact tools on this rookie checklist. He holds the highest average exit velocity on this list at 91.8 due to his ability to make consistent hard contact. He doesn’t have much juice but he finds barrel posting a list leading 50.6% barrel rate as well. Garcia’s blend of speed and contact make him a viable lead off hitter.

7. PATRICK BAILEY - 24 - C - GIANTS

Patrick Bailey is by far the best rookie catcher in his class and stats wise, one the best catchers in the MLB as well. He’s in the 100% percentile in Fielding Run Value and Framing, the 98th percentile in Caught Stealing Above Average, and the 95th percentile in pop time. Much like Doyle, Bailey’s defense provides much more value than his offense but he’s an absolute machine behind the plate.

6. NELSON VELAZQUEZ - 24 - OF - ROYALS

Nelson Velazquez hit 17 homeruns in only 179 Major League plate appearances. Yes, it’s pretty damn good. His .378 xwOBA and .352 ISO are also the best on this rookie checklist and he’s in the top 5 in several other areas as well. The two things that concern me about Velazquez are sample size (lowest) and SwStr% (2nd highest). Velazquez has the smallest sample size of anyone on this list and while his numbers are elite, I want to make sure he can continue to perform at this level before I go crazy for him.

5. GABRIEL MORENO - 23 - C - DBACKS

Breaking the seal on our Top 5 is Arizona Diamondbacks catcher, Gabriel Moreno. Moreno is another floor type player who is solid on both sides of the ball. He has the ability to hit for average offensively and is one of the most difficult catchers in the MLB to run on. Moreno had a small power streak a few years ago in the MiLB but it didn’t last or carry over to the major league level. The Diamondbacks made a good move snagging Moreno from the Jays earlier this season as it has paid off for both parties.

4. ZACH NETO - 22 - SS - ANGELS

Zach Neto was the first player to reach the MLB in the entire 2022 draft class after only a couple hundred MiLB plate appearances. Neto plays an excellent shortstop and although his swing involves an enormous leg kick, he’s shown some offensive upside. He got rather hot following his call-up, but like most players it didn’t last very long. I don’t think Neto will be a 30/30 player down the road but he will flash enough leather and lumber to retain his position at shortstop in the foreseeable future.

3. EDOUARD JULIEN - 24 - 2B - TWINS

Edouard Julien brings home the bronze medal on this list after putting together an impressive year for the Twins in 2023. He holds the 3rd highest xwOBA among the rookies on this checklist and recently helped the Twins to their first playoff series win in 21 years. Throughout his professional career, Julien has been a very patient hitter. When he gets his pitch he rarely misses which helps to up play his power. Between Julien and Royce Lewis, the Twins future is looking pretty bright at the moment.

2. MATT MCLAIN - 24 - SS - REDS

Matt McLain is our silver medalist after putting together one of the best rookie campaigns in 2023 across the entire MLB. Following the 2021 Draft, McLain showed off his speed and power abilities across 2 levels but struggled a bit with K’s and contact in 2022. He had a breakout year in 2023 hitting for average, power, and stealing bases in AAA prior to an early season callup. A late season oblique injury cut his 2023 MLB season short but in 403 PA’s, he hit 16 HR’s and stole 14 bases while posting a .290 BA’s (the best season of his career). It’s kind of funny how everyone was peeing down their leg about Elly De La Cruz while McLain was finding a lot of barrel.

1. NOLAN JONES - 25 - OF - ROCKIES

Now I know Nolan Jones already has a RC in 2023 Topps Chrome but his numbers in 2023 were too good not to talk about. Jones was traded to the Rockies during the off season in 2022 for Juan Brito. His change of scenery worked and over 424 MLB PA’s in 2023, he held a .360 xwOBA, a .245 ISO, hit 20 HR’s and stole 20 bags, and posted a max exit velocity of 115.3, the highest on this list. Jones’ bat came to life after years of disappointment in the Cleveland organization.

HONORABLE MENTIONS:

MICHAEL BUSCH - 25 - 2B/3B - DODGERS

Michael Busch has had a dominant offensive career in the MiLB and recently took home the Pacific Coast League (AAA) MVP honors.

MATT MERVIS - 25 - 1B - CUBS

Mervis has a similar profile to Busch with a bit higher contact skill and a bit lower defensive ceiling. He hit for average and power in the MiLB but has yet to get it going at the MLB level.

BRAYAN ROCCHIO - 22 - SS - GUARDIANS

There isn’t much love for floor players in this hobby but Brayan Rocchio is a switch hitting shortstop that could generate enough offense to be an everyday regular at the position. He’s also only 22.

CASEY SCHMITT - 24 - SS/3B - GIANTS

Schmitt plays great defense and has an absolute cannon of an arm that plays well at both shortstop and third base. His bat was top tier in the MiLB but he’s had a tough time being consistent at the MLB level.

XAVIER EDWARDS - 24 - 2B - MARLINS

Edwards has shown a consistent hit tool from both sides of the plate but he probably couldn’t beat his sister in a game of Homerun Derby.

DOMINIC FLETCHER - 26 - OF - DIAMONDBACKS

Fletcher is a lot like Edwards but with a little more juice.